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Year-end inflation expectation increased in the Central Bank survey

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published its August Market Participants Survey, conducted with 69 participants from the real and financial sectors, as well as professionals. According to the survey, the August CPI increase expectation, which was 2.17% last month, rose to 2.55% in this survey period. The year-end CPI increase expectation rose from 42.95% to 43.31%. The CPI increase expectation for 12 months later decreased from 30.02% to 28.71%, and for 24 months later, it decreased slightly from 19.32% to 19.30%. Participants' year-end USD/TRY exchange rate expectation fell from 37.3667 to 37.2760, while the 12-month USD/TRY exchange rate expectation increased from 41.5175 to 42.0348. The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was $27.6 billion in the previous survey period, decreased to $25.5 billion in this period. The current account deficit expectation for next year also decreased to $25.7 billion. The policy rate expectation for the end of the current month is 50%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expectation for the current year remained stable at 3.4%, while the expectation for next year fell to 3.5%. The policy rate expectation for the end of the current month is 50%, while the expectation for three months later decreased to 48.10%. The policy rate expectation for 12 months later also decreased from 34.57% to 33.30%.

Inflation figures for August have been announced

TURKSTAT announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August. In August 2023, the change in CPI was 9.09% compared to the previous month, 43.06% compared to December of the previous year, 58.94% compared to the same month of the previous year and 56.28% according to the twelve-month averages. The main group that showed the least increase compared to the same month of the previous year was housing with 24.97%. On the other hand, the main group with the highest increase compared to the same month of the previous year was restaurants and hotels with 89.31%. In terms of main expenditure groups, the main group that showed the least increase in August 2023 compared to the previous month was education with 3.11%. As of August 2023, out of 143 main headings covered in the index, the index of 1 main heading decreased, while the index of 4 main headings remained unchanged. There was an increase in the index of 138 main titles. The change in CPI excluding unprocessed food products, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco and gold, in August 2023 compared to the previous month; 9.32%, 47.21% compared to December of the previous year, 63.52% compared to the same month of the previous year and 57.77% according to the twelve-month averages.

Airline tickets increased in Russia

Russian Deputy Minister of Transport Igor Chalik, stated that air ticket prices have increased within the limits of inflation. Speaking to reporters, Chalık noted that there are two tracking methods in ticket price dynamics, “One of them is backward bookings and the other is forward bookings. We see a certain increase in the cost of airfare going forward. However, these rates are within the inflation rate. The Deputy Minister claimed that ticket costs decreased when retrospective ticket prices were examined. Speaking in April, Deputy Minister of Transport of Russia, Igor Chalik, said that in 2023, domestic flight ticket prices in Russia are not expected to increase more than inflation. Speaking to journalists, Chalık said at the Ministry of Economic Development meeting held earlier this week that the cost of domestic air travel in the country could increase by 15-30 percent in 2023 without providing subsidies to airlines. In his statement on the subject, Chalık mentioned that his words were distorted and said, “Remember that my words are part of my entire statement and some of them have been broken off. The important point is that this is an estimate based on data provided by the airlines themselves. We do not expect prices to rise more than inflation, and this rate is around 5.3 percent, according to the Ministry of Economic Development.”

#Inflation

Year-end inflation expectation increased in the Central Bank survey

Inflation figures for August have been announced

Airline tickets increased in Russia